A mere eight weeks in the past when the young forward was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery berated him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his performances were a symptom or the source of the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. After the in-form star curled home his second strike to restore his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and roared. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row , after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, now sit only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Challengers?
That’s a rather hard question to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, while the victories have piled up.
Per the data, in only two games has the side registered an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a team which has put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look strangely fragile – yet right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for Rogers to bail them out with some clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again when facing United.
Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents managed more shots and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent the club must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, will not continue to thrashing the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the player he resembled in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital England player.
The current run must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. When the match-winner faced the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
